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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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